- This data sheet also in French and Spanish.
Many countries are facing a shrinking pool of their working-age populations, often considered to tát be ages 15 to tát 64, to tát tư vấn the population ages 65+, jeopardizing pension guarantees and long-term health care programs for the elderly.
Worldwide in 1950, there were 12 persons of working age for every person age 65 or older. By 2010, that number had shrunk to tát 9. By 2050, this elderly tư vấn ratio, which indicates levels of potential social tư vấn available for the elderly, is projected to tát drop to tát 4.
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The Population Reference Bureau’s 2010 World Population Data Sheet and its summary report offer detailed information on 19 population, health, and environment indicators for more than thở 200 countries.
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“There are two major trends in world population today,” says Bill Butz, PRB’s president. “On the one hand, chronically low birth rates in developed countries are beginning to tát challenge the health and financial security of their elderly. On the other, the developing countries are adding over 80 million to tát the population every year and the poorest of those countries are adding đôi mươi million, exacerbating poverty and threatening the environment.”
Global population rose to tát 6.9 billion in 2010, with nearly all of that growth in the world’s developing countries. In contrast, the world’s developed countries, totaling 1.2 billion people, saw their populations continue to tát age as the numbers of those of working age dwindle. For example, nhật bản has a total fertility rate of 1.4 children per woman, and an elderly tư vấn ratio of 3—the lowest in the world, along with Germany and Italy. By 2050, nhật bản will have only 1 working-age adult for every elderly person; Germany and Italy will each have 2. “In 2011, world population will reach 7 billion, just 12 years after reaching 6 billion,” says Carl Haub, PRB’s senior demographer and author of this year’s data sheet. “It also took 12 years to tát climb from 5 billion to tát 6 billion. The big question now is when will we reach 8 billion? Most likely in 2024, 13 years after the seventh billion, but it could be sooner.”
The 2010 World Population Data Sheet shows the contrasts between developing and developed countries. Comparing Ethiopia and Germany illustrates how stark the contrasts can be (see table). Even though Ethiopia and Germany have almost the same population size today, Ethiopia is projected to tát more than thở double its population from 85 million today to tát 174 million in 2050. Germany’s population will likely decline from 82 million to tát 72 million over that same time. The cause of these enormous differences is lifetime births per woman. Ethiopia’s total fertility rate of 5.4 is four times greater than thở Germany’s rate of 1.3.
Key Demographic Indicators, 2010
|Population mid-2010||82 million||85 million|
|Population 2050 (projected)||72 million||174 million|
|Percent of population below age 15||14%||44%|
|Percent of population ages 65+||20%||3%|
|Elderly tư vấn ratio (2010)||3||17|
|Elderly tư vấn ratio (2050)||2||11|
|Lifetime births per woman||1.3||5.4|
|Annual births||650,000||3.3 million|
|Annual deaths||840,000||1 million|
|Life expectancy at birth||80 years||55 years|
|Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)||3.5||77|
|Annual infant deaths||2,250||250,000|
Other Highlights From the 2010 World Population Data Sheet
- The worldwide recession appears to tát have caused declines in birth rates in some developed countries, such as Spain and the United States; and slowed down increases where birth rates had begun to tát rise, such as in Norway and Russia.
- Africa’s population is projected to tát double to tát 2 billion by 2050, although this growth could be greater if birth rates vì thế not decrease faster than thở currently. Africa’s total fertility rate is 4.7 children per woman.
- Worldwide, 40 percent of the population, or more than thở 2.7 billion people, lack access to tát an adequate sanitation facility. The bulk of the underserved live in rural areas of developing countries. Only 40 percent of people in rural areas in these countries have access to tát sanitation.
- As the U.S. population ages, spending on entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare will rise sharply. Total spending on these two programs is projected to tát increase from today’s level of 8.4 percent of GDP to tát 12.5 percent in 2030.